Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Providence). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	8h 50m	99%	89%
United Details →	PVD 05:50 → IAD 07:29UA 6192 · flown by Mesa	1h 17m Dulles	IAD 08:46 → MSP 10:33UA 2604	5h 43m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	PVD 17:24 → ATL 20:14DL 2314	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	8h 15m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	PVD 13:27 → ATL 16:04DL 2147	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 18:37 → MSP 20:23DL 2654	7h 56m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	PVD 12:56 → DTW 15:00DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest	1h 20m Detroit	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	5h 16m	87%	70%
American Details →	PVD 07:08 → ORD 08:59AA 360	2h 34m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → MSP 13:06AA 2448	6h 58m	96%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON