Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching San Juan on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882	7h 32m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	PVD 13:27 → ATL 16:04DL 2147	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:30DL 1861	9h 03m	99%	88%
American Details →	PVD 06:03 → CLT 08:15AA 1585	2h 48m Charlotte	CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783	8h 47m	99%	86%
JetBlue Details →	PVD 06:00 → JFK 07:00B6 1129	3h 00m New York	JFK 10:00 → SJU 14:14B6 503	8h 14m	100%	81%
JetBlue Details →	PVD 05:45 → FLL 08:52B6 1197	1h 18m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 10:10 → SJU 12:48B6 1553	7h 03m	94%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON