Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 492 at 18:19, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 492 Southwest	PWM 18:19	BNA 19:57	8%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	6h 30m	99%	93%
United Details →	PWM 05:28 → IAD 07:01UA 3522 · flown by Republic	1h 29m Dulles	IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366	5h 01m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	PWM 13:55 → ATL 16:46DL 2479	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 20:24 → BNA 20:38DL 3002	7h 43m	99%	91%
Southwest Details →	PWM 13:06 → BWI 14:51WN 146	3h 50m Baltimore	BWI 18:41 → BNA 19:30WN 737	7h 24m	100%	90%
American Details →	PWM 06:29 → ORD 08:13AA 4499 · flown by Republic	3h 12m Chicago	ORD 11:25 → BNA 13:07AA 2362	7h 38m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PWM 16:52 → DTW 18:54DL 1821	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → BNA 22:15DL 2126	6h 23m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PWM 11:47 → MSP 13:49DL 1766	1h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 15:29 → BNA 17:35DL 2612	6h 48m	99%	89%
American Details →	PWM 11:09 → LGA 12:46AA 4571 · flown by Republic	2h 23m New York	LGA 15:09 → BNA 16:35AA 4380 · flown by Republic	6h 26m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON