Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 2–5% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3335 PWM 05:51 → BWI 07:35 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 920 PWM 14:54 → BWI 16:39 · 5% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 3% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 3% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3335 Southwest	PWM 05:51	BWI 07:35	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4393 Southwest	PWM 10:29	BWI 12:15	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 146 Southwest Flight history →	PWM 13:06	BWI 14:51	5%	1%	0.5%	92%
WN 920 Southwest	PWM 14:54	BWI 16:39	5%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON