Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Dulles, leaving 05:28, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day


UA 287 United Flight history →	PWM 15:37	DEN 18:16	12%	2%	0.6%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PWM 05:28 → IAD 07:01UA 3522 · flown by Republic	3h 12m Dulles	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	8h 37m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:04 → JFK 07:22DL 5277 · flown by Endeavor	1h 08m New York	JFK 08:30 → DEN 10:58DL 532	6h 54m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995	7h 05m	96%	89%
American Details →	PWM 06:29 → ORD 08:13AA 4499 · flown by Republic	1h 34m Chicago	ORD 09:47 → DEN 11:45AA 2363	7h 16m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	PWM 13:55 → ATL 16:46DL 2479	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746	8h 48m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	PWM 16:52 → DTW 18:54DL 1821	2h 42m Detroit	DTW 21:36 → DEN 22:44DL 1644	7h 52m	98%	87%
United Details →	PWM 19:16 → IAD 21:14UA 3582 · flown by Republic	1h 09m Dulles	IAD 22:23 → DEN 00:30 +1UA 495	7h 14m	94%	86%
Delta Details →	PWM 12:40 → DTW 14:40DL 426	1h 41m Detroit	DTW 16:21 → DEN 17:27DL 2431	6h 47m	97%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PWM 17:07 → ORD 18:57UA 1828	46m Chicago	ORD 19:43 → DEN 21:18UA 329	6h 11m	72%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON