tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 426 Delta Flight history → PWM 12:40 DTW 14:40 7% 2% 0.6% 84%
DL 1821 Delta Flight history → PWM 16:52 DTW 18:54 10% 3% 0.6% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240 6h 56m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → PWM 06:29 → ORD 08:13AA 4499 · flown by Republic 1h 49m Chicago ORD 10:02 → DTW 12:39AA 3977 · flown by Envoy 6h 10m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → PWM 11:47 → MSP 13:49DL 1766 2h 26m Minneapolis MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476 7h 12m 100% 91%
AmericanDetails → PWM 17:28 → ORD 19:21AA 4741 · flown by Republic 1h 55m Chicago ORD 21:16 → DTW 23:51AA 4012 · flown by Envoy 6h 23m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → PWM 10:46 → EWR 12:49UA 3405 · flown by Republic 1h 18m Newark EWR 14:07 → DTW 16:07UA 3437 · flown by Republic 5h 21m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → PWM 13:55 → ATL 16:46DL 2479 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 20:30 → DTW 22:33DL 1232 8h 38m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → PWM 11:02 → LGA 12:29DL 5361 · flown by Endeavor 2h 00m New York LGA 14:29 → DTW 16:34DL 308 5h 32m 94% 87%
DeltaDetails → PWM 13:12 → LGA 14:44DL 5346 · flown by Endeavor 2h 16m New York LGA 17:00 → DTW 19:39DL 999 6h 27m 92% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON