Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 5277 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 5277 PWM 06:04 → JFK 07:22 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 5399 PWM 16:10 → JFK 17:33 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5277 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	PWM 06:04	JFK 07:22	4%	3%	0.7%	92%
B6 307 JetBlue Flight history →	PWM 05:50	JFK 07:19	4%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 5399 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	PWM 16:10	JFK 17:33	15%	4%	0.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON