tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 1766 at 11:47, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1766 Delta Flight history → PWM 11:47 MSP 13:49 11% 3% 0.7% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PWM 05:28 → IAD 07:01UA 3522 · flown by Republic 1h 45m Dulles IAD 08:46 → MSP 10:33UA 2604 6h 05m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901 8h 50m 98% 89%
SouthwestDetails → PWM 13:06 → BWI 14:51WN 146 1h 39m Baltimore BWI 16:30 → MSP 18:08WN 1008 6h 02m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → PWM 13:55 → ATL 16:46DL 2479 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 18:37 → MSP 20:23DL 2654 7h 28m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → PWM 15:37 → DEN 18:16UA 287 2h 38m Denver DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667 9h 22m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → PWM 06:20 → JFK 07:44DL 5277 · flown by Endeavor 3h 51m New York JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414 8h 30m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → PWM 09:00 → DFW 12:14AA 3301 2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:33 → MSP 17:12AA 2406 9h 12m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → PWM 12:40 → DTW 14:40DL 426 1h 40m Detroit DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203 5h 32m 93% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PWM 13:55 → ATL 16:46DL 2479 52m Atlanta ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981 6h 20m 72% 61%
UnitedDetails → PWM 17:07 → ORD 18:57UA 1828 1h 00m Chicago ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005 5h 34m 67% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON