Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 3688 at 08:06 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–15%.

Safest bet that day YX 3688 PWM 08:06 → ORD 10:06 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1828 PWM 17:07 → ORD 18:57 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3688 Republic	PWM 08:06	ORD 10:06	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4499 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 06:29	ORD 08:13	5%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 2170 United	PWM 05:55	ORD 07:40	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 6046 SkyWest	PWM 11:38	ORD 13:38	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4741 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 17:28	ORD 19:21	9%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 2717 American	PWM 13:52	ORD 15:40	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1828 United Flight history →	PWM 17:07	ORD 18:57	15%	3%	0.5%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON