Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3927 RAP 06:48 → MSP 09:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 3967 RAP 14:31 → MSP 17:07 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3927 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RAP 06:48	MSP 09:29	5%	4%	0.6%	91%
DL 3971 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RAP 11:00	MSP 13:38	7%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 3851 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RAP 16:15	MSP 18:53	8%	4%	0.7%	83%
DL 3967 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RAP 14:31	MSP 17:07	11%	4%	0.6%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON