tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, MQ 4019 at 11:51, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
MQ 4019 Envoy RAP 11:51 PHX 13:27 11% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Rapid City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RAP 06:48 → MSP 09:29DL 3927 · flown by SkyWest 2h 03m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 6h 58m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → RAP 05:00 → DEN 06:37UA 5576 · flown by SkyWest 3h 16m Denver DEN 09:53 → PHX 10:56UA 1782 6h 56m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → RAP 10:21 → DEN 11:58UA 5708 · flown by SkyWest 3h 37m Denver DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254 7h 14m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → RAP 09:00 → DEN 10:35UA 5884 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Denver DEN 13:27 → PHX 14:33UA 631 6h 33m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → RAP 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 1767 3h 02m Denver DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686 6h 25m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → RAP 11:00 → MSP 13:38DL 3971 · flown by SkyWest 1h 16m Minneapolis MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284 6h 09m 95% 86%
AmericanDetails → RAP 06:30 → DFW 10:00AA 4277 · flown by Envoy 3h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:27 → PHX 14:11AA 1548 8h 41m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → RAP 10:18 → DFW 13:42AA 3768 · flown by Envoy 2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:32 → PHX 17:15AA 1232 7h 57m 99% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON