Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3773 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RDM 05:30	PHX 07:57	5%	2%	0.7%	99%
AA 3929 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RDM 14:53	PHX 17:30	7%	3%	0.7%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDM 05:05 → SLC 07:48DL 4004 · flown by SkyWest	3h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431	7h 07m	99%	89%
United Details →	RDM 05:00 → DEN 08:28UA 1188	1h 25m Denver	DEN 09:53 → PHX 10:56UA 1782	5h 56m	98%	87%
United Details →	RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32UA 2262	3h 26m San Francisco	SFO 18:58 → PHX 20:56UA 1375	7h 07m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	RDM 13:27 → SEA 14:50DL 3735 · flown by SkyWest	3h 40m Seattle	SEA 18:30 → PHX 21:29DL 2698	8h 02m	99%	82%
United Details →	RDM 13:14 → DEN 16:42UA 2350	3h 01m Denver	DEN 19:43 → PHX 20:47UA 2655	7h 33m	98%	82%
Alaska Details →	RDM 05:31 → PDX 06:14AS 2043 · flown by Horizon	46m Portland	PDX 07:00 → PHX 09:49AS 1349	4h 18m	89%	80%
Alaska Details →	RDM 13:29 → SEA 14:39AS 276	2h 07m Seattle	SEA 16:46 → PHX 19:34AS 746	6h 05m	95%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON