Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


QX 2128 Horizon	RDM 07:05	SAN 09:25	15%	4%	1.2%	no record
AS 2415 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	RDM 13:31	SAN 15:52	22%	3%	1.0%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDM 05:05 → SLC 07:48DL 4004 · flown by SkyWest	3h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	7h 03m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	RDM 12:15 → SLC 15:04DL 3727 · flown by SkyWest	2h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06DL 1252	5h 51m	99%	84%
American Details →	RDM 05:30 → PHX 07:57AA 3773 · flown by Envoy	2h 37m Phoenix	PHX 10:34 → SAN 12:01AA 2122	6h 31m	100%	82%
United Details →	RDM 05:00 → DEN 08:28UA 1188	2h 47m Denver	DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940	7h 41m	99%	82%
United Details →	RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32UA 2262	3h 16m San Francisco	SFO 18:48 → SAN 20:25UA 1577	6h 36m	99%	81%
Alaska Details →	RDM 05:31 → PDX 06:14AS 2043 · flown by Horizon	2h 59m Portland	PDX 09:13 → SAN 11:39AS 721	6h 08m	100%	80%
United Details →	RDM 13:14 → DEN 16:42UA 2350	2h 38m Denver	DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540	7h 32m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	RDM 06:13 → SEA 07:40DL 4036 · flown by SkyWest	2h 05m Seattle	SEA 09:45 → SAN 12:39DL 2533	6h 26m	98%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON