tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: UA 702 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 702 United Flight history → RDM 05:55 SFO 07:33 3% 2% 0.6% 94%
UA 2262 United Flight history → RDM 13:49 SFO 15:32 14% 5% 0.7% 51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDM 05:05 → SLC 07:48DL 4004 · flown by SkyWest 3h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902 6h 58m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → RDM 05:00 → DEN 08:28UA 1188 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506 6h 25m 97% 85%
AlaskaDetails → RDM 05:25 → PDX 06:15AS 2043 · flown by Horizon 1h 04m Portland PDX 07:19 → SFO 09:16AS 526 3h 51m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → RDM 06:13 → SEA 07:40DL 4036 · flown by SkyWest 2h 05m Seattle SEA 09:45 → SFO 12:04DL 1412 5h 51m 98% 82%
AlaskaDetails → RDM 16:00 → PDX 16:50AS 2167 · flown by Horizon 1h 01m Portland PDX 17:51 → SFO 19:39AS 1393 3h 39m 96% 81%
AlaskaDetails → RDM 13:29 → SEA 14:39AS 276 1h 57m Seattle SEA 16:36 → SFO 18:48AS 1385 5h 19m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → RDM 13:14 → DEN 16:42UA 2350 1h 12m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 6h 26m 91% 73%
AlaskaDetails → RDM 07:15 → SEA 08:28AS 2027 · flown by Horizon 3h 14m Seattle SEA 11:42 → SFO 14:04AS 655 6h 49m 98% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → RDM 13:05 → SAN 15:25AS 2415 · flown by Horizon 49m San Diego SAN 16:14 → SFO 17:49AS 2314 · flown by Horizon 4h 44m 58% 15%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON