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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 13 nonstops are 3–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1552 RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 1669 RDU 13:43 → ATL 15:29 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time
Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

DL 1552 Delta Flight history → RDU 05:10 ATL 06:28 3% 1% 0.5% 95%
DL 1699 Delta Flight history → RDU 11:15 ATL 12:42 3% 1% 0.5% 93%
DL 2634 Delta Flight history → RDU 09:58 ATL 11:22 4% 2% 0.5% 95%
DL 1530 Delta Flight history → RDU 08:50 ATL 10:18 4% 2% 0.5% 90%
DL 2478 Delta Flight history → RDU 07:30 ATL 09:00 4% 2% 0.5% 89%
DL 1192 Delta Flight history → RDU 06:20 ATL 07:46 4% 1% 0.5% 95%
DL 1488 Delta Flight history → RDU 13:47 ATL 15:20 5% 2% 0.5% 90%
DL 2052 Delta Flight history → RDU 12:40 ATL 14:08 6% 1% 0.5% 90%
DL 1550 Delta Flight history → RDU 17:25 ATL 19:01 6% 2% 0.5% 83%
DL 2026 Delta Flight history → RDU 15:35 ATL 17:05 6% 2% 0.5% 86%
F9 4797 Frontier Flight history → RDU 06:15 ATL 08:08 7% 3% 0.7% 81%
DL 2600 Delta Flight history → RDU 18:29 ATL 20:05 7% 2% 0.5% 85%
F9 1669 Frontier Flight history → RDU 13:43 ATL 15:29 10% 5% 0.7% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON