Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3339 at 07:49 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 3339 RDU 07:49 → AUS 09:50 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4967 RDU 16:24 → AUS 18:25 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3339 Southwest	RDU 07:49	AUS 09:50	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 4921 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	RDU 07:10	AUS 08:58	7%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 4967 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	RDU 16:24	AUS 18:25	16%	3%	0.7%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON