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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1022 RDU 09:23 → BOS 11:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 552 RDU 19:13 → BOS 21:18 · 14% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

DL 1022 Delta Flight history → RDU 09:23 BOS 11:25 5% 1% 0.6% 88%
DL 1054 Delta Flight history → RDU 07:00 BOS 09:02 5% 2% 0.6% 93%
B6 1484 JetBlue Flight history → RDU 06:00 BOS 07:59 6% 2% 0.6% 78%
DL 1033 Delta Flight history → RDU 12:55 BOS 14:59 10% 2% 0.6% 75%
DL 2393 Delta Flight history → RDU 20:35 BOS 22:39 11% 4% 0.6% 73%
B6 2084 JetBlue Flight history → RDU 11:18 BOS 13:23 12% 3% 0.6% 50%
DL 1075 Delta Flight history → RDU 16:05 BOS 18:17 13% 4% 0.6% 67%
B6 2184 JetBlue Flight history → RDU 14:15 BOS 16:15 14% 5% 0.6% 64%
B6 552 JetBlue RDU 19:13 BOS 21:18 14% 6% 0.6% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON