Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 1–5% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4394 RDU 05:58 → BWI 07:13 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3361 RDU 15:39 → BWI 16:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 3% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 2% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4394 Southwest	RDU 05:58	BWI 07:13	1%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4395 Southwest	RDU 10:12	BWI 11:29	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3345 Southwest	RDU 13:49	BWI 15:05	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3361 Southwest	RDU 15:39	BWI 16:56	5%	1%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON