Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1903 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 1903 RDU 05:01 → CLT 06:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1904 RDU 19:21 → CLT 20:25 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1903 American Flight history →	RDU 05:01	CLT 06:00	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
AA 1753 American	RDU 09:19	CLT 10:29	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1768 American	RDU 11:12	CLT 12:23	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2688 American Flight history →	RDU 11:53	CLT 12:58	8%	2%	0.6%	85%
AA 683 American Flight history →	RDU 07:05	CLT 08:05	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
AA 1749 American	RDU 13:49	CLT 14:56	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2704 American Flight history →	RDU 15:25	CLT 16:30	14%	3%	0.6%	76%
AA 1894 American Flight history →	RDU 17:49	CLT 18:59	16%	3%	0.6%	77%
AA 1904 American Flight history →	RDU 19:21	CLT 20:25	20%	3%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON