Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3348 at 06:32 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 3348 RDU 06:32 → DEN 08:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3349 RDU 17:33 → DEN 19:18 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3348 Southwest	RDU 06:32	DEN 08:00	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 741 United	RDU 08:12	DEN 10:11	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2288 United Flight history →	RDU 16:22	DEN 18:25	15%	4%	0.6%	81%
F9 2225 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 19:38	DEN 21:21	16%	3%	0.8%	82%
WN 3349 Southwest	RDU 17:33	DEN 19:18	17%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON