Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1388 RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 4937 RDU 15:47 → DTW 17:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1388 Delta Flight history →	RDU 05:33	DTW 07:16	3%	1%	0.5%	93%
DL 1427 Delta Flight history →	RDU 09:54	DTW 11:36	4%	2%	0.5%	94%
DL 2164 Delta Flight history →	RDU 12:58	DTW 14:44	6%	2%	0.5%	86%
DL 1407 Delta Flight history →	RDU 18:45	DTW 20:36	7%	3%	0.5%	83%
F9 4937 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 15:47	DTW 17:45	8%	5%	0.7%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON