Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 4780 at 12:07, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4780 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	RDU 12:07	IND 13:55	9%	2%	0.7%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 10:01 → IND 11:39DL 8842	6h 29m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:23 → BOS 11:25DL 1022	2h 34m Boston	BOS 13:59 → IND 16:46DL 5627 · flown by Republic	7h 23m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	6h 16m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134	5h 21m	100%	93%
United Details →	RDU 07:27 → EWR 09:02UA 1525	2h 52m Newark	EWR 11:54 → IND 14:07UA 3446 · flown by Republic	6h 40m	98%	93%
United Details →	RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789	1h 13m Dulles	IAD 08:24 → IND 10:13UA 3561 · flown by Republic	4h 13m	98%	92%
American Details →	RDU 10:52 → DCA 12:18AA 5627 · flown by PSA	2h 17m Washington	DCA 14:35 → IND 16:35AA 4452 · flown by Republic	5h 43m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	RDU 11:15 → ATL 12:42DL 1699	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → IND 17:42DL 2979	6h 27m	100%	92%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON