Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 2027 Delta Flight history →	RDU 07:03	LAS 08:57	7%	2%	0.6%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 13:24 → LAS 14:49DL 659	7h 51m	100%	93%
United Details →	RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789	1h 53m Dulles	IAD 09:04 → LAS 11:12UA 1323	8h 12m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	8h 50m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538	3h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238	9h 26m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	RDU 13:47 → ATL 15:20DL 1488	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → LAS 19:50DL 919	9h 03m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	8h 42m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388	1h 43m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 39m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	RDU 11:15 → ATL 12:42DL 1699	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → LAS 17:52DL 711	9h 37m	100%	91%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON