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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 09:58, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 462 Delta Flight history → RDU 18:58 LAX 21:10 13% 2% 0.6% 86%
AA 2299 American RDU 18:07 LAX 20:38 13% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 9h 19m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 9h 42m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538 3h 44m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 10h 23m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:34 → JFK 07:19AA 4805 · flown by Republic 1h 41m New York JFK 09:00 → LAX 11:58AA 1 9h 24m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → RDU 12:58 → DTW 14:44DL 2164 3h 36m Detroit DTW 18:20 → LAX 20:04DL 852 10h 06m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → RDU 11:15 → ATL 12:42DL 1699 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 15:39 → LAX 17:22DL 301 9h 07m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → RDU 09:54 → DTW 11:36DL 1427 1h 14m Detroit DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634 7h 41m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898 7h 38m 99% 90%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RDU 15:18 → PHL 16:49AA 5663 · flown by PSA 47m Philadelphia PHL 17:36 → LAX 20:24AA 3123 8h 06m 72% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON