Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 5230 at 09:17, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5230 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	RDU 09:17	MCI 10:55	7%	3%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → MCI 09:38DL 2471	5h 28m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388	1h 24m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → MCI 09:44DL 2826	5h 11m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747	6h 53m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538	2h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 10:04 → MCI 11:37DL 1349	6h 37m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443	5h 31m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	RDU 11:15 → ATL 12:42DL 1699	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660	6h 15m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	RDU 17:25 → ATL 19:01DL 1550	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → MCI 23:58DL 2911	7h 33m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908	4h 41m	96%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON