Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3899 RDU 07:17 → MCO 09:01 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1233 RDU 21:26 → MCO 23:25 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3899 Southwest	RDU 07:17	MCO 09:01	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1337 Delta Flight history →	RDU 06:00	MCO 07:47	3%	1%	0.8%	91%
DL 1377 Delta Flight history →	RDU 12:56	MCO 14:45	8%	2%	0.8%	84%
F9 1039 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 10:02	MCO 12:02	9%	4%	0.9%	75%
F9 1233 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 21:26	MCO 23:25	12%	6%	1.0%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON