Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 395 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 395 RDU 06:19 → MIA 08:32 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 3281 RDU 16:50 → MIA 19:06 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 395 American Flight history →	RDU 06:19	MIA 08:32	8%	2%	0.9%	90%
DL 890 Delta Flight history →	RDU 08:15	MIA 10:26	8%	2%	0.8%	82%
AA 2321 American Flight history →	RDU 11:30	MIA 13:45	12%	3%	0.9%	96%
AA 3281 American	RDU 16:50	MIA 19:06	20%	7%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON