Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1482 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 1482 RDU 05:56 → ORD 07:10 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 481 RDU 17:08 → ORD 18:19 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1482 United	RDU 05:56	ORD 07:10	13%	5%	1.3%	no record
UA 1448 United Flight history →	RDU 10:00	ORD 11:26	17%	6%	1.1%	87%
AA 2123 American Flight history →	RDU 09:47	ORD 10:54	17%	6%	1.4%	89%
AA 2849 American Flight history →	RDU 07:08	ORD 08:30	19%	6%	1.8%	85%
YX 3406 Republic	RDU 13:17	ORD 14:45	21%	8%	1.5%	no record
UA 5732 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDU 10:59	ORD 12:29	23%	9%	1.8%	86%
UA 2826 United	RDU 07:57	ORD 09:16	23%	8%	1.2%	no record
YX 4420 Republic	RDU 15:39	ORD 17:14	24%	12%	2.8%	no record
YX 4417 Republic	RDU 19:44	ORD 21:20	26%	11%	2.3%	no record
AA 2949 American Flight history →	RDU 18:26	ORD 20:01	28%	12%	1.8%	46%
AA 2732 American	RDU 14:37	ORD 16:02	29%	10%	1.7%	no record
UA 481 United	RDU 17:08	ORD 18:19	36%	17%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	RDU 11:53 → CLT 12:58AA 2688	1h 04m Charlotte	CLT 14:02 → ORD 14:03AA 2530	3h 09m	89%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON