Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2781 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 2781 RDU 06:00 → PHL 07:41 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 5663 RDU 15:18 → PHL 16:48 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2781 American Flight history →	RDU 06:00	PHL 07:41	6%	2%	0.6%	82%
AA 896 American Flight history →	RDU 08:05	PHL 09:42	10%	3%	0.6%	80%
AA 5590 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 10:48	PHL 12:29	11%	4%	0.7%	57%
F9 2060 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 11:53	PHL 13:33	11%	4%	0.8%	75%
AA 3152 American	RDU 12:52	PHL 14:33	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
OH 5348 PSA	RDU 17:42	PHL 19:25	16%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 5663 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 15:18	PHL 16:48	20%	5%	0.7%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON