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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: American via JFK, leaving 05:34, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:34 → JFK 07:19AA 4805 · flown by Republic 1h 55m New York JFK 09:14 → PHX 11:24AA 1186 8h 50m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388 1h 19m Detroit DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070 7h 11m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538 3h 46m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 9h 46m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348 6h 51m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789 1h 41m Dulles IAD 08:52 → PHX 10:50UA 709 7h 50m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → RDU 09:40 → BNA 10:32AA 4762 · flown by Republic 3h 53m Nashville BNA 14:25 → PHX 16:22AA 3086 9h 42m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 43m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → RDU 12:58 → DTW 14:44DL 2164 3h 28m Detroit DTW 18:12 → PHX 19:39DL 1135 9h 41m 100% 89%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON