Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 354 Delta Flight history →	RDU 06:38	SEA 09:25	8%	2%	0.7%	85%
AS 670 Alaska Flight history →	RDU 07:02	SEA 09:56	13%	2%	0.7%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538	3h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	10h 00m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MCO 07:47DL 1337	1h 18m Orlando	MCO 09:05 → SEA 12:12DL 347	9h 12m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:03 → LAS 08:57DL 2027	2h 12m Las Vegas	LAS 11:09 → SEA 14:00DL 2922	9h 57m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	10h 03m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 20m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	RDU 11:33 → MSP 13:17DL 2519	1h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 27m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:00 → AUS 09:11DL 4921 · flown by Endeavor	2h 03m Austin	AUS 11:14 → SEA 13:45DL 1684	9h 45m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	9h 51m	100%	87%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RDU 13:53 → JFK 15:50DL 5009 · flown by Endeavor	1h 10m New York	JFK 17:00 → SEA 20:36DL 740	9h 43m	73%	58%
Delta Details →	RDU 16:05 → BOS 18:17DL 1075	1h 12m Boston	BOS 19:29 → SEA 23:02DL 324	9h 57m	63%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON