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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2623 United RDU 08:32 SFO 11:13 12% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 1769 United Flight history → RDU 17:27 SFO 20:10 16% 3% 0.6% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693 8h 10m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789 2h 38m Dulles IAD 09:49 → SFO 12:38UA 1773 9h 38m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → RDU 10:32 → IAD 11:43UA 1535 3h 08m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 10h 06m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → SFO 15:49DL 823 8h 51m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538 3h 14m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 10h 09m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → SFO 11:55DL 672 8h 35m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → RDU 16:51 → IAH 18:58UA 2407 3h 01m Houston IAH 21:59 → SFO 00:05 +1UA 1609 10h 14m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:34 → JFK 07:19AA 4805 · flown by Republic 3h 10m New York JFK 10:29 → SFO 13:54AA 149 11h 20m 100% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → RDU 13:15 → JFK 14:59B6 2786 46m New York JFK 15:45 → SFO 19:11B6 415 8h 56m 74% 57%
AlaskaDetails → RDU 07:02 → SEA 09:56AS 670 51m Seattle SEA 10:47 → SFO 12:50AS 688 8h 48m 70% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON