tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3357 Southwest RDU 06:13 STL 07:21 2% 1% 0.4% no record
WN 3428 Southwest RDU 18:58 STL 20:09 9% 2% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388 1h 34m Detroit DTW 08:50 → STL 09:31DL 2868 4h 58m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 07:43 → STL 08:19DL 1571 4h 09m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 57m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → RDU 06:00 → PHL 07:42AA 2781 1h 21m Philadelphia PHL 09:03 → STL 10:42AA 1739 5h 42m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538 1h 18m Minneapolis MSP 09:04 → STL 10:43DL 1289 5h 43m 97% 89%
AmericanDetails → RDU 15:18 → PHL 16:49AA 5663 · flown by PSA 3h 12m Philadelphia PHL 20:01 → STL 21:57AA 798 7h 39m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → RDU 18:29 → ATL 20:05DL 2600 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 6h 24m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → RDU 11:33 → MSP 13:17DL 2519 1h 54m Minneapolis MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224 6h 17m 98% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → RDU 11:29 → LGA 13:12DL 4667 · flown by Endeavor 47m New York LGA 13:59 → STL 15:50DL 4905 · flown by Endeavor 5h 21m 49% 27%
AmericanDetails → RDU 11:30 → MIA 13:45AA 2321 47m Miami MIA 14:32 → STL 16:33AA 3954 · flown by Envoy 6h 03m 35% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON