Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1279 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14%.

Nonstops that day


DL 1279 Delta Flight history →	RDU 06:25	TPA 08:16	4%	2%	1.3%	94%
DL 1275 Delta Flight history →	RDU 18:07	TPA 20:03	14%	5%	1.8%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	57m Atlanta	ATL 07:25 → TPA 08:54DL 2605	3h 44m	98%	92%
United Details →	RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789	1h 49m Dulles	IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32UA 683	5h 32m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525	6h 43m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587	5h 09m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 14:01 → TPA 15:35DL 1720	5h 37m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388	2h 59m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587	7h 17m	99%	89%
United Details →	RDU 07:27 → EWR 09:02UA 1525	2h 58m Newark	EWR 12:00 → TPA 15:06UA 601	7h 39m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	RDU 17:25 → ATL 19:01DL 1550	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560	7h 04m	100%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON