Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 4396 at 10:51, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4396 Southwest	RIC 10:51	BNA 11:35	4%	1%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155	5h 24m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:39DL 1402	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	5h 35m	98%	91%
United Details →	RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224	3h 14m Chicago	ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414	7h 29m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	RIC 10:19 → ATL 11:58DL 1462	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159	4h 44m	99%	90%
American Details →	RIC 06:30 → CLT 07:54AA 1063	2h 48m Charlotte	CLT 10:42 → BNA 11:14AA 1295	5h 44m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	RIC 17:28 → ATL 19:09DL 1214	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121	6h 47m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	RIC 15:09 → ATL 16:58DL 3152	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 20:24 → BNA 20:38DL 3002	6h 29m	99%	88%
United Details →	RIC 07:36 → EWR 09:10UA 4604 · flown by GoJet	1h 39m Newark	EWR 10:49 → BNA 12:21UA 2776	5h 45m	97%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON