Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1775 RIC 10:22 → CLT 11:46 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1757 RIC 17:14 → CLT 18:35 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1775 American	RIC 10:22	CLT 11:46	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 5452 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RIC 12:21	CLT 13:43	8%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 3154 American	RIC 07:56	CLT 09:26	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1063 American Flight history →	RIC 06:30	CLT 07:54	9%	2%	0.7%	92%
OH 5144 PSA	RIC 15:03	CLT 16:25	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 5505 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RIC 16:26	CLT 17:48	11%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 1909 American Flight history →	RIC 19:14	CLT 20:36	13%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 1757 American	RIC 17:14	CLT 18:35	14%	2%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON