Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 10:19, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 2493 United Flight history →	RIC 08:15	DEN 10:07	8%	2%	0.6%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995	7h 20m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	RIC 08:00 → ATL 09:42DL 1415	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	8h 00m	99%	90%
United Details →	RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224	3h 46m Chicago	ORD 11:09 → DEN 12:53UA 2857	8h 53m	100%	90%
American Details →	RIC 06:34 → PHL 07:44AA 5815 · flown by Piedmont	1h 41m Philadelphia	PHL 09:25 → DEN 11:31AA 1313	6h 57m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:15 → MSP 08:04DL 5344 · flown by Endeavor	2h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → DEN 12:05DL 2927	7h 50m	98%	89%
United Details →	RIC 07:36 → EWR 09:10UA 4604 · flown by GoJet	2h 50m Newark	EWR 12:00 → DEN 14:22UA 8112	8h 46m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	RIC 10:19 → ATL 11:58DL 1462	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	6h 39m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	RIC 15:09 → ATL 16:58DL 3152	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746	7h 34m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON