Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3778 RIC 12:00 → DFW 14:16 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1915 RIC 15:16 → DFW 17:35 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3778 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RIC 12:00	DFW 14:16	7%	2%	0.6%	94%
AA 2204 American Flight history →	RIC 07:08	DFW 09:27	7%	3%	0.7%	81%
AA 1915 American Flight history →	RIC 15:16	DFW 17:35	13%	5%	0.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON