Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 4604 at 07:36 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 4604 RIC 07:36 → EWR 09:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest UA 3476 RIC 18:30 → EWR 20:00 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4604 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	RIC 07:36	EWR 09:10	6%	3%	0.9%	83%
G7 4467 GoJet	RIC 06:26	EWR 07:47	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 4493 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	RIC 09:56	EWR 11:37	9%	3%	0.9%	77%
UA 3415 United flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 14:38	EWR 16:08	13%	4%	0.9%	88%
UA 3476 United flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 18:30	EWR 20:00	21%	6%	1.0%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON