tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YV 4042 Mesa RIC 06:15 IAH 08:12 9% 3% 0.8% no record
YV 4046 Mesa RIC 16:46 IAH 19:11 12% 5% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224 3h 23m Chicago ORD 10:46 → IAH 13:36UA 2767 8h 36m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682 6h 29m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → RIC 07:36 → EWR 09:10UA 4604 · flown by GoJet 2h 57m Newark EWR 12:07 → IAH 15:02UA 8120 8h 26m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → RIC 17:28 → ATL 19:09DL 1214 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 7h 29m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → RIC 08:22 → ORD 09:47UA 4452 · flown by GoJet 2h 53m Chicago ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:40UA 1448 8h 18m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → RIC 15:09 → ATL 16:58DL 3152 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284 7h 15m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:39DL 1402 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 7h 38m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → RIC 13:03 → ATL 14:52DL 2650 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → IAH 19:39DL 2327 7h 36m 100% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RIC 18:30 → EWR 20:00UA 3476 · flown by Republic 50m Newark EWR 20:50 → IAH 23:43UA 2425 6h 13m 75% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON