Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: B6 969 at 16:52, 25%.

Nonstops that day


B6 969 JetBlue Flight history →	RIC 16:52	MCO 19:07	25%	14%	3.2%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → MCO 09:56DL 1213	4h 11m	96%	89%
United Details →	RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224	1h 49m Chicago	ORD 09:12 → MCO 13:13UA 1643	7h 13m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:39DL 1402	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664	5h 05m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:15 → MSP 08:04DL 5344 · flown by Endeavor	1h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 09:27 → MCO 13:40DL 1208	7h 25m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	RIC 07:01 → JFK 08:26DL 4660 · flown by Endeavor	3h 01m New York	JFK 11:27 → MCO 14:17DL 2775	7h 16m	98%	83%
United Details →	RIC 07:36 → EWR 09:10UA 4604 · flown by GoJet	2h 00m Newark	EWR 11:10 → MCO 14:03UA 2396	6h 27m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	RIC 08:00 → ATL 09:42DL 1415	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030	5h 00m	97%	81%
American Details →	RIC 06:30 → CLT 07:54AA 1063	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 10:54 → MCO 12:47AA 1576	6h 17m	97%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON