Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 4820 at 07:46, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4820 Southwest	RIC 07:46	MDW 08:51	4%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	7h 11m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	RIC 10:19 → ATL 11:58DL 1462	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 56m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	RIC 17:28 → ATL 19:09DL 1214	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	5h 47m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	RIC 14:12 → MSP 16:05DL 5063 · flown by Endeavor	56m Minneapolis	MSP 17:01 → MDW 18:42DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor	5h 30m	91%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON