Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 3640 at 10:41 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–20%.

Safest bet that day YX 3640 RIC 10:41 → ORD 12:04 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6249 RIC 20:27 → ORD 21:36 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3640 Republic	RIC 10:41	ORD 12:04	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 224 United Flight history →	RIC 06:00	ORD 07:23	6%	4%	0.6%	82%
AA 1242 American	RIC 08:24	ORD 09:35	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
YX 3693 Republic	RIC 17:42	ORD 19:03	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2737 American	RIC 12:29	ORD 13:41	15%	5%	0.8%	no record
OO 6249 SkyWest	RIC 20:27	ORD 21:36	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 4547 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	RIC 13:00	ORD 14:26	13%	3%	3.2%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON