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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Austin on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225 1h 18m Denver DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026 5h 50m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest 1h 38m Salt Lake City SLC 13:18 → AUS 17:07DL 2689 6h 02m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:54 → SFO 15:24UA 2279 3h 08m San Francisco SFO 18:32 → AUS 00:04 +1UA 2332 8h 10m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → RNO 09:05 → DEN 12:21UA 347 3h 14m Denver DEN 15:35 → AUS 18:48UA 1899 7h 43m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:56 → SFO 07:24UA 1954 1h 11m San Francisco SFO 08:35 → AUS 14:06UA 1107 6h 10m 98% 85%
AlaskaDetails → RNO 12:21 → PDX 14:10AS 2395 · flown by Horizon 3h 29m Portland PDX 17:39 → AUS 23:49AS 1370 9h 28m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest 3h 42m Los Angeles LAX 15:55 → AUS 20:58DL 622 8h 25m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → RNO 13:04 → SLC 15:34DL 1595 2h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → AUS 21:30DL 2728 6h 26m 97% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON