tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AS 729 at 07:55, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 729 Alaska RNO 07:55 PDX 09:40 10% 3% 0.7% no record
AS 2127 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record RNO 17:35 PDX 19:09 2% 0% 3.8% 98%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650 3h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 6h 40m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest 3h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244 7h 04m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → RNO 17:35 → SLC 20:07DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest 2h 43m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373 6h 09m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644 7h 39m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest 2h 06m Los Angeles LAX 14:19 → PDX 16:34DL 2551 6h 01m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:54 → SFO 15:24UA 2279 3h 34m San Francisco SFO 18:58 → PDX 20:47UA 1227 6h 53m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → RNO 11:38 → SFO 13:03UA 5899 · flown by SkyWest 3h 30m San Francisco SFO 16:33 → PDX 18:23UA 1812 6h 45m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → RNO 07:00 → LAX 08:45DL 4106 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Los Angeles LAX 10:00 → PDX 12:20DL 2766 5h 20m 96% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON