Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3373 at 06:24 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 3–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 3373 RNO 06:24 → PHX 08:14 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2016 RNO 16:12 → PHX 18:12 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3373 Southwest	RNO 06:24	PHX 08:14	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 1826 American	RNO 06:05	PHX 08:01	3%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1437 American Flight history →	RNO 12:47	PHX 14:46	12%	5%	0.6%	89%
WN 1491 Southwest	RNO 14:54	PHX 16:44	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 2016 American Flight history →	RNO 16:12	PHX 18:12	16%	8%	0.6%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON