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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225 2h 49m Denver DEN 11:36 → SJC 13:21UA 1256 7h 51m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → RNO 10:26 → SLC 13:07DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest 2h 03m Salt Lake City SLC 15:10 → SJC 16:04DL 1260 5h 38m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest 3h 53m Los Angeles LAX 16:06 → SJC 17:26DL 1359 6h 53m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → RNO 15:13 → LAX 16:53DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest 3h 59m Los Angeles LAX 20:52 → SJC 22:14DL 1420 7h 01m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → RNO 09:05 → DEN 12:21UA 347 3h 34m Denver DEN 15:55 → SJC 17:35UA 1883 8h 30m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → RNO 13:04 → SLC 15:34DL 1595 1h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 17:31 → SJC 18:28DL 1172 5h 24m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → RNO 12:51 → DEN 16:23UA 1534 3h 07m Denver DEN 19:30 → SJC 21:09UA 2745 8h 18m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → RNO 12:47 → PHX 14:46AA 1437 1h 36m Phoenix PHX 16:22 → SJC 18:29AA 2094 5h 42m 94% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON