Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1485 ROC 07:08 → CLT 09:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2320 ROC 17:55 → CLT 19:59 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1485 American Flight history →	ROC 07:08	CLT 09:05	6%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 2742 American	ROC 12:37	CLT 14:36	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2320 American Flight history →	ROC 17:55	CLT 19:59	13%	3%	0.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON