Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 4521 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ROC 15:00	IAD 16:21	8%	8%	3.7%	92%
UA 4578 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ROC 06:10	IAD 07:31	9%	6%	3.0%	91%
UA 4476 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ROC 10:28	IAD 11:49	12%	0%	0.0%	88%
UA 4861 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	ROC 19:54	IAD 21:16	21%	8%	17.2%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON