Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 5311 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 5311 ROC 05:54 → LGA 07:15 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 5054 ROC 18:25 → LGA 19:46 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5311 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ROC 05:54	LGA 07:15	3%	2%	0.7%	82%
9E 5298 Endeavor	ROC 12:32	LGA 13:53	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 5054 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ROC 18:25	LGA 19:46	15%	5%	0.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON